Let’s be bearish…

Here’s an interesting factoid: a rise of over 55% in the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index has never failed to produce a recession. The index has now risen by over 100% in the past 33 months. Here are the historical occurrences where the index has gained at least 55% over a 30 month period: May 1973, January 1980, September 1990, November 2000, and March 2004. More interesting, only one time before has the index rallied more than 100% and that was back in 1973 when the S&P 500 fell 16%.

From Kirk’s report

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